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Monday, December 19, 2005

This 'N That

Context.

Matters.

Always has.

Always will.

Most 'net folks who read anything I write (thanks to both of you by the way), know that context is like a sermon on Easter for me. You almost always know what you're going to hear. At least you know there is going to be some sort of reference to the word.

So What's Your Point Padna? I Ain't Got The Time To Read Your Snippets AND Doc's Novels Too!

What does "Crazy" "Jurassic" "Intolerant" "Child Abusing" Carl Everett bring to the Mariners? Without agreeing with any of those labels, Padna's position is that Everett will bring both pizazz and punch. What I will not do is the number crunching that has been going on ad nauseum trying to illustrate that "Randy Winn gave you x VORP per $ while Everett gives you x minus some fraction VORP per $, so why are the M's doing this?" This is not an Everett versus Winn comp in the first place, since Winn has already been translated into Foppert, Carvajal, and Gonzales. Are the M's in a better position now having translated Winn and signed Everett. I think the answer is obvious. While it's possible that none of the arms will pan out (that's always possible as we've found out), I'd much rather be in the position now of having the guys they have than how it looked even six months ago. Clubhouse fire and more long balls address two of the M's primary needs.

So Why Washburn and Not Millwood?

Instead of answering myself that question, it's important to note two things:

The first, of course, is that we don't even know whether the premise of the question is even valid. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever that the M's could not sign Millwood if they wanted him, provided he was okay with coming here. But I'm not going to rehash the budget issues now. We can do that in July when we need three months of future FA.

"Either your signature or your brains will be on that contract tomorrow. The choice is yours."

The second is that last I heard, extortion was still illegal. There's no guarantee that Millwood even wants to come here. It sure has been curiously quiet......

Context.....uh....Dep't

What happens if the top targets do not want to come here? What does the org do? You've just had two seasons bad enough to have your fanbase erode to the point of threatening all that you've built. You cannot simply say, get younger and develop your kids in the business environment that exists now. Granted, the M's put themselves in the position they're in. But they do not have the luxury of not including a plan to make immediate improvements. If that means paying the going market rate for Civic instead of star, then so be it.

The whole point of stars and scrubs is that you don't buy the Civic because you're averse to the Lexus. You buy a Civic when the Lexus is not available and you have a business reason to do so. This is a perfectly good time to invest in that Civic. It's not like you've got a Roy Oswalt who wants to come here and you're chiseling him. You can't wait on Boras and get left without a chair when the music stops.

Signing Washburn now does two things.

1. It puts a strong lefty starter at Safeco, which we all know is a pretty good thing.
2. It maintains a decisive tone with an agent like Boras that "if you want the best deal, take my deal now or we need to move to our next plan." That kind of tone will bode well for future negotiations. Which, of course, there will be. BB always needs to keep that in mind.

11 comments to this post:

At 12/19/2005 08:39:00 PM, Blogger Sakata wrote...

________________________
"Randy Winn gave you x VORP per $ while Everett gives you x minus some fraction VORP per $, so why are the M's doing this?"
____________________________________

Have people actually made VORP/$M comparisons with Winn and Everett indicating that Winn was superior? O.o;; *honestly hasn't seen any*

That makes no sense, whatsoever, if you go by his contribution to the M's in 2005 versus what Everett (in 2005). The club option on Winn for 2006 was for $5M, while Everett costs $3.4M (the two figures you should be going by...). In addition, Winn made $3.75M last year for only .5 R better. Those two figures both compared to $3.4M to Everett come up short in VORP/$M

Everett- 14.2/ 3.4 = 4.18 VORP/$M
Winn (option)- 14.7/ 5 = 2.94 VORP/$M
Winn ('05 sal.)- 14.7/ 3.75 = 3.92 VORP/$M

____________________________________
Winn has already been translated into Foppert, Carvajal, and Rodriguez
____________________________________

Gonzalez, Padna, not Rodriguez... ... ...

____________________________________
It puts a strong lefty starter at Safeco, which we all know is a pretty good thing.
____________________________________

Quick, name the last time the Mariners had a strong LH starter at SafeCo. I just couldn't help but point out that minor fact... ...

 
At 12/19/2005 10:07:00 PM, Blogger Silentpadna wrote...

Er, Gonzalez, you're right. I ran out of time today trying to get this out - never did proof it. Will go back and edit.

Re: the VORP/$ ratio. That was hypothetical as I did read enough questions as to why you would unload Winn and then eventually replace him with someone with comparable OPS type numbers.

Re: "strong" LH starter, obviously I meant in a solid pitcher sort of way. Moyer qualifies there, but the point being that as hard as we harp on the M's for going after LH bats, we ought to be as interested in good LH pitchers too.

I do acknowledge that there is merit to the argument as to whether Washburn qualifies. The argument is based on what people think his peripherals say about him, not what his actual results say.

 
At 12/20/2005 10:27:00 AM, Blogger Matthew Carruth wrote...

I don't see signing Washburn sends ANY sort of message to Boras except that, "hey if you wait us out long enough on your top guy, we'll eventually panic and sign your economy model for first class price because we're scared and we have to do something."

Yeah, that'll bode well for the future.

If you can't get your particular star, you look for more scrubs and try to find a different place to put the star. Example, you sign Hee Sop Choi after he's non tendered instead of Carl Everett. Then sign Jeff Davannon and Matt Diaz giving you the flexibility to say swap Ibanez, Morse and Franklin (for example) for Pavano and in turn, take on Pavano's entire contract.

Also, you push harder on Burnett so that you don't get into this situation to begin with.

Also, you try to swing a deal for Dave Williams before Cincy gets him for the low price of a crappy 1B.

Also, you sign BH Kim since apparently the only offer he has right now is a 1year, 1-1.5M offer from Colorado.

You take a flier on Kevin Brown as well. Hell, sign him and Kim, put Brown in the rotation and plug him with Kim when he gets injured. Cost: ~3M, 1 year guarenteed and I bet you most anything that would outperform Washburn in 2006. Hell, a healthy Gil Meche probably equals Washburn's 2006, much less his 08 and 09 seasons (Hello, 60 day DL).

There's just no way this is a smart signing.

 
At 12/20/2005 12:22:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous wrote...

Ineresting post. I particularly like the Randy Winn red herring. Folk are lining up to take a whack at that straw man instead of discussing the costs and benfits of signing Everett and Washburn.

I suppose it makes sense in some oddly twisted Bavasi-worshipping way. He's the one who started this misdirection fest with his M's need for a "left-handed sock" declaration.

Instead of falling into the company line and discussing the relative merits of each signing by the team's criteria, is there a chance that y'all could examine the team independantly and start the discussion with the merits of their announced "plan"?

Does a team with the worst OBP in the AL really only need some extra power form the left side? Is the answer really a guy who may hit 20 dingers but hardly gets on base otherwise?

Will just any pitcher help a team with a so-so outfield and one of the slickest fielding infields in baseball?

Carl Everett and Jarrod Washburn exacerbate each other's, and the M's, most severe shortcomings...a low-OBP, albatross in the outfield and a low-K, flyball starter.

It may be that clubhouse leadership is a problem, and Everett is the answer. A smarter GM would unload his flyball prone staff and hunt down grounball pitchers, or keep Reed, dump Ibanez, and find a hotshot left fielder.

The M's do neither.

Instead they think the answer may be to trade away a young, inexpensive good-fielding center fielder for yet another overpaid, medicore flyball prone starter.

And the debate here is whether or not Carl is a better answer than the last guy to a question that nobody should be asking in the first place.

 
At 12/20/2005 01:02:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous wrote...

Padna,

One comment you made is something I've been toying with the last few days: The idea that once his plan A was not going to happen in an acceptable time frame, Bavasi decided to send Boras a message not to presume on his patience (and his $$$$) in the future, and to take him seriously when he says he needs a decision soon.

As long as you've got to go to a fallback plan, you might as well send the message.

Makes sense to me.

The only trouble is, if things do not go well, will Bavasi be around next year to make the message work for him.

 
At 12/20/2005 09:47:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous wrote...

All I can say is...if Bavasi Trades Reed for Bronson Arroyo...He's earned his ticket out of town...and I'll be looking elsewhere for entertainment this summer becasue I'm not going to watch the Mariners.

 
At 12/21/2005 12:07:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous wrote...

Where is everbody?

Just for fun:
Meche for Patterson

Reed, Ibanez, and Morse for Manny, Arroyo, and serious cash.

 
At 12/21/2005 12:09:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous wrote...

I always wonder how people make so many typo's. Make the "everybody".

 
At 12/21/2005 08:02:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous wrote...

I like the Meche for Patterson deal all by itself. At least Washburn, Moyer and Pineiro would have a chance, then.

You could sign Wade Miller as the fifth starter.

If you really have to swing a deal with Boston, how about:

Reed, Sexson and Mateo
for
Clement, Youkilis, (Papelbon or Lester) and (Michael Rozier, or some other good A-ball prospect).

I think that deal might help both teams, and Boston may be getting a little antsy now with Damon a Yank.

 
At 12/21/2005 09:29:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous wrote...

Ew.

The one thing we can't do is tradeSexson for a guy with no power at a corner position.

 
At 12/22/2005 08:53:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous wrote...

Power at the corners? I'm curious how that works. Do HRs count more when hit by a corner defender?

The M's offensive woes are not from a lack of power, folks. Just because Bavasi says it's so, don't make it so.

The M's real problem is OBP.

They simply just give away too many outs. Whether you want to build an offense on power or speed, you have to start with gettng on base. The M's don't do that.

I'm sure there are lots of reasons to criticize that proposed trade, but sacrificing "power at the corners" isn't one of 'em.

And, it will look better a month or two into the season when Snelling comes back up to DH, and you have a pair of .400+ OBP guys in the middle of the lineup.

Of course, it would be nice to find someone who can play LF in the bargain, too.

 

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