POTD: JARROD WASHBURN

Aloha from Jamaica-mon and G'die from the Louvre. Or something. My wife will let me know where we are when she comes and kicks my 'net-cafe chair over. Garcon, another doppio. Only got a half hour to see if there are any baseball fans left in Seattle (or who frequent Vission de Detectair) anymore. Q: Quick, Doc, what's the good news?! A: ::winning smile:: VERY few people get the disease named after them! And the therapy qualifies as experimental, so we'll pick up the tab on that too. Everything's coming up gold. . Q: If you even try to reverse your field on the WashBURN signing now, we are prepared to pitch-and-flame your castle... A: ::see smile at top left of homepage:: I'm always open to new experiences, provided they're righteous. An unruly mob can't be any better or worse than Jarrod Washburn for 4/$36m or an hour of Dodgeball with cheaters in 95% humidity. The fact that the Mariners are willing to give this contract to Jarrod Washburn, and UNwilling to give Kevin Millwood ONE MORE STEENKING YEAR? That, in one move, sums up everything that Silentpadna and I have been crying and moaning about for four bloomin' years. Washburn-for-4 over Millwood-for-5 absolutely sums up the Mariner business organization, and it sums up the root cause of their wussiness on the field. Sorry. Can't dance around the question. When the generals have no mojo, the troops won't either. And as you and I know, bulldogging the calf in a half-hearted way is the very FASTEST way to go to the hospital (or to 96-loss City). The Mariners' very cowardice is precisely what makes their worst nightmares come true. In this case, that nightmare is the fact that they are one of the worst 5 teams in baseball, and the only one of the bottom 5 that is rich. Lincoln and Armstrong are turning in Tampa Bay results with $90m payrolls. Their refusal to give Kevin Millwood the 5th year is one more swing-and-miss that keeps them there. . Q: You still think the Mariners will contend in 06? A: They could, yes. ... The M's start at -52 runs .... Felix +40, Johjima +20-40, Everett =, Washburn +30 ... That's about +100 runs. ... then there are the improvements from the young kids, further trades, etc. On paper, the difference between Washburn and Millwood is probably only about 20 runs or so. It's not the 2006 dealbreaker. . Q: Are you trying to say Washburn will be effective in 2006?! A: Washburn has never been anything but effective. He'll be very effective again in 2006. He'll probably be in the top 25 in the league in ERA. I'll have him about #20 on my AL SP draft list. His K's are marginal and he's tricking people, BUT: 1) His BB rates, the last 5 years, have ranged from 2.1 to 2.5. 2) His HR rates, the last 5 years, have ranged from 0.8 to 1.2. 3) His translated ERA's, the last 5 years, have ranged from 3.18 to 4.01. Here, get a load of Washburn's translated ERA's. They have been, and remain, as good as Kevin Millwood's: 2000 - 3.38 2001 - 3.52 2002 - 3.18 2003 - 3.86 2004 - 4.01 2005 - 3.48 Career - 3.62 And his on-field ERA is 3.93 for his career. . Q: On further review, you think Washburn is a good pitcher? A: He is, yes. Having heard what Inside Pitch has to say on it, and suddenly realizing that Washburn is a card-carrying member of the Tommy John Family of Pitchers, and realizing that his K's have been down since 2003, while he has maintained low HR's and low XERA's ... Yes, you have to admit that Washburn is a solid #3 starting pitcher, a 15-game winner on a good team. That's why the M's had to pay $36m -- because other MLB teams saw that also. Q: Why are his skills so predictable year-to-year? A: Because he's a gamer, because his fastball moves (as Pitch pointed out), and because he's a graceful lefty with consistent mechanics. Q: Even though his K's are low? A: His K's are at the lower boundary of what is acceptable. Some good pitchers, such as Brad Radke, operate in the 5k area. Look, let's not outsmart ourselves here. Washburn has been doing it his whole life. He has NEVER had a translated K rate over 5.7 and his translated ERA has never been over 4.01. I originally thought Washburn's K's were declining, but they're not. They're exactly the same the last three years, and not far below his peak. I looked at Washburn's K rates, comp'ed him to Moyer, and figured he's smoke-and-mirrors. A closer look shows more crunch in the center. My bad. But it happens about 40 times per game to me in a chess tournament: you look once and think you have it nailed, and then you study a while and you see things in the position you didn't, at first glance. What you see in Washburn, at second glance, is a repeatable Tommy John game: he gives up hits, but walks nobody, and contains the HR's, and he's tough as nails, and he does it every year. . Q: What about Safeco? A: As a solid #3 starter who is lefty, Safeco could easily give Washburn a sparkling record. Hey, don't gimme any guff about lefties in Safeco, kids. USSM just spent a year oooh'ing and aaah'ing about Jamie Moyer's King Kong act at home. . Q: Still doesn't make him a smart sign. A: Too often we, including me, get too caught up in the question of "who is the most CLEVER signing." This happens in roto. An owner "realizes" that Jeremy Reed is a sleeper, and .... takes him 3rd round, to make sure everybody knows how smart he is. LOL. Jarrod Washburn is not a clever signing. But if you forget about how SEXY or TECHNO the signing is, you realize that Jarrod Washburn is going to be a whale of an effective pitcher in Safeco. . Q: Final Prognosis? A: On further review, I'd call Washburn about as effective an SP as Loaiza or Morris or Byrd, and better suited to Safeco. As a lefty #3SP, he'd have been delightful as the 2nd SP in behind Millwood, at say $5-6m per. So I, amigos, am going to laugh off the $9m per, and think of Jarrod Washburn as a nice second pitcher in. If Matt Clement, or similar, comes in as the deuce -- YOU hang yourself. I'm celebrating a weird, but powerful, 2006 rotation. :-) . Q: What does Inside Pitch have to say about him? A: From ITP: I think Millwood is a bit overrated as well, it's funny because people are expecting him to be better for the very reason they are expecting Wash to implode -- their peripherals. I think most people have covered the numbers and the perception that he's been lucky ... I actually have a hard time dismissing the numbers but at the same time Wash is one of those guys that makes me wonder about a pitcher actually trying to pitch to contact. The thing about Wash, he throws a weird fastball, it's got a hitch in it, you'll see him throw 10 FB in a row and yet you'll see the batter struggle to make good contact. The one thing that's been overstated a bit is the condition of his arm... Prior to last year he's never really had any arm problems, he's been on the DL with stuff like strep throat, stomach ailments, and early in his career oblique strains.. He really struggled with those a couple years ago too. I know you guys are TOed at the money involved, and I wouldn't want to see him making that sort of cake either but, I really do believe it's a case of a team paying the market rate. This has been a bad year for baseball's lords of the realm when it comes to fiscal restraint, I guess they will just have to comfort themselves with the loads of money they are making. Anyway, rather than sticking to one opinion, I think you might enjoy seeing what Angel fans are saying about the guy.mb3.scout.com/fanaheimang...1720.topicThe one thing you will come to love -- he is not afraid of ANY hitter, he will never get rattled, and he is the first guy to laugh at himself after he does something you just want to cringe at. ============= Well, you'll find you got a pitcher who's indicators are all predicting inpending doom and yet, when he pitches you will see a guy who is about as fearless a competitor (never seen him get rattled - ever), as you can find and a guy who takes his failures pretty well, some would say too well -- Im refering to Washburn's infamous smirk... The guy will give up a 700 foot HR and then turn around and give a silly grin. No clue what his future will hold for him, I'm sure the Ms board has talked up the issues with the indicators *(the falling K rate, the weak k/W rate, ect ect), and those should be genuine concerns but chances are the guy will continue to evolve into more of a finesse lefty. The consistent 92-93 FB isn't anywhere near as consistent as it used to be (he seems to top out around 90 these days), but he will still challenge hitters and trust his defense. He will still go out there and give a team everything he has for as long as he has it. Like Trrr said, maybe he will do better now that's he's out of Anaheim. I liked Wash, he was a good soilder for the Angels, he will be overpaid, and that contract is likely too long but, the market is what the market is... He should be okay for the first two years of that deal I would think.For the Angels -- this is yet another reason to talk contract extension with Kelvim Escobar..Best of luck to the bow hunter, except of course when he is facing the Halos.