Intensity In Ten Cities, Dept.
 One thing that's kind of funny, and kind of nice, is that the blog-o-sphere isn't picking up rocks (behind the one or two ringleaders) to media-lynch Everett as a worthless human being. But the odd flip side to that coin is that the blog-o-sphere, in general, is worrying that Everett has nothing left in the tank. That part of it is mystifying. Everett: 1) Was a bona fide MVP-level player at his peak (and being far more gifted than, say, Raul Ibanez, tends to a later decline) 2) Hit 23 HR's last year 3) Hit about 6-8 additional doubles in Chicago that woulda been out of Safeco (=30 HR) and is a dead pull LH hitter 4) Has been playing dinged up Everett is kind of in the Griffey, Nomar class. Always take the mega-gifted athlete to surprise high, rather than the Ibanez-, Aurilia-style overachievers. Honestly, whoever Everett was playing for, if they had a friendly RF, I'd figure him for around 25-30 bombs and they will be big ones. Everett is approximately a lateral move from Randy Winn and Jacque Jones, offensively, though with a louder bat. And no matter what the saberdweebs tell you, Everett will bring a lot more LH presence to the M's lineup than did winn. . Chemistry 101 No jokes about Phillips, please... :-) But note this carefully. Sabermetricians, if they had been around in 1994 like they are now, would have graded Bill Bavasi's 1994-1995 offseason an F. ...and yet the reality was, he had turned a .400 team into a dominating one! Sabermetricians are absolutely colorblind to factors like those presented by Tony Phillips. And that is why every year, year after year, there are at least three teams that perform 20-30 games differently than expected -- like the 2001 and 2004 Mariners -- and sabermetricians shrug and say, "it's just one of those things." ...what it actually is, is a manifestation of the huge part of baseball that we don't understand. Though a (roughly) lateral move offensively, there's little doubt that Bill Bavasi does see Carl Everett as the Mariners' version of Tony Phillips. And I don't know how you disagree with him about that. Did the 2005 Mariners not need a Tony Phillips? ...and who else would you have gotten to fill the role? BABVA, Dr D |
posted by DrDetecto @ 12/17/2005 08:17:00 PM
13 comments
13 comments to this post:
Dr. D,
I think you and I may be a minority of 2 on the Everett deal. (3 counting Bavasi, I suppose.)
His swing is tailor made for the right field porch at Safeco field. He is a superb athlete who, if he is in shape, had a couple of good years left in him.
Contrary to popular opinion, I believe this is a low risk signing for the M's. I'd lay money that he will have more dingers and more rbi's than Raul in '06. Not bad for someone in the 6 spot.
-Chris
You go MOM...
Funny you should mention low-risk.
In comparison to Jacque Jones, Everett has about the same bat, less defense, and costs far less. I thought that the attraction of defense was that it was supposed to be cheap?
If you are into minimizing risk and maximizing bang-for-the-buck, I don't know how you don't like Everett's price associated.
Again, if you see Everett as (1) the chemistry salt-shaker, (2)as a wash with Winn/Jones offensively, and (3) cheap and low-risk, the move starts to make a lot of sense.
Don't get me wrong; I wanted a bona fide bat. But taken on its own Tony Phillips-, Danny Fortson-style terms, you can see that this team needed one, badly.
Cheers,
Jeff
The biggest upside in signing Everett is his clubhouse presence. The Mariners finished 7 games below Pythag last year due to a very poor bench (on top of the black holes at SS and C for 2/3 the year) and a weak clubhouse.
On the surface, one can see that Everett was meant to target the weak clubhouse atmosphere. If the Mariners were to improve on their Pythag differential to -4 games (the error ratio of Pythag being +/-4), that would make Everett worth 3 wins; roughly about 30 R in terms of pure production. Granted, it's still only about half of a bonafide #3 hitter like Giles or Manny, but for $4M, it's a good deal. Almost as good as getting Raul's 40 VORP for $4M per (he is really underrated as a value signing of the Bill Mueller and Scott Hatteberg class).
However, underneath the surface, it could be seen that Everett may be a "delayed" bench addition if Snelling or Choo can show they are able to play around June or July.
Tony Phillips also inexplicably turned into a great player during his time with Bavasi.
Is Bavasi trying to catch lightning in a bottle again? Its difficult to lead when you suck.
I must've missed where Tony Phillips was solely responsible for Jim Edmonds, Garret Anderson, and JT Snow putting up huge offensive seasons, and the pitching staff reducing its ERA by 90 points. Not to mention that Phillips was a good player, where Everett isn't.
Carl Everett has let himself get into terrible shape, and he's nowhere close to the gifted athlete he was in his prime. Don't you wonder why he doesn't run anymore? For a guy with a "winning attitude," he sure doesn't do a real good job of motivating himself.
And as long as we're talking about his hit chart, you do realize that he only hit seven doubles in Chicago last year, right? And that Safeco is a bigger park than US Cellular, right? Safeco's right field power alley is deeper than Chicago's, so if anything, Everett's homers will come down. Go back his hit chart and look at the group of "h"s next to the 372 in Chicago. Those are long fly outs in Seattle.
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Posted by taro
Tony Phillips also inexplicably turned into a great player during his time with Bavasi.
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Tony Phillips was already in the middle of a very successful career when he joined the Angels in 1995. The guy was an On-base machine from 1991 to the end of his career (like Rickey Henderson, he would put up .220/ .230 BAs with .350/ .360 OBPs).
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Don't you wonder why he [Carl Everett] doesn't run anymore?
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Didn't he have knee surgery in 2001/ 2002 or something? And it's not like he used to run much, anyway. He had 1 ML season with over 15 SB and only 3 with over 10. It was clearly never a factor in his game.
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Safeco is a bigger park than US Cellular, right? Safeco's right field power alley is deeper than Chicago's, so if anything, Everett's homers will come down. Go back his hit chart and look at the group of "h"s next to the 372 in Chicago. Those are long fly outs in Seattle.
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SafeCo has a jet stream in Right Field that makes it arguably the best park for LHB power hitters in all of baseball (a BPF of 146 in 2005). In fact, SafeCo has never been a real HR-deterring park, at all. During its history, it's only been slightly unfavorable for RHB in HR and doubles, and highly favorable for LHB in HR and 2B. Where SafeCo really kills hitters is batting average (a BPF of 84 in 2005, for example).
The point is I'm not buying the "six or eight doubles will turn into homers" argument. Those doubles are nowhere to be found in Everett's spray chart. Besides, let's not forget that Carl will spend 25% of his time hitting against lefties, which just isn't going to turn out real well in Seattle.
Everett was once a pretty good player, an athlete who didn't embarrass himself in the outfield and who once stole 27 bases with the Astros. Since then, he's completely let himself go, to the point where he's a DH who needs a considerable career rejuvenation at 34 to become an average hitter.
He'd BETTER be the best motivator in baseball, because he's not real likely to help out very much on the field otherwise.
"Tony Phillips was already in the middle of a very successful career when he joined the Angels in 1995."
On second look yes, he WAS a great player in 1994 as well, and consistenly very good.
Everett isn't even in the same league.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/252170_mari15.html
The fire inside Everett can get out. He's been known to get in the faces of friends and foes. Bavasi, for one, is counting on that.
"We know what we'll get from him between the lines," Bavasi said. "But he has the potential to do here what he has done elsewhere. And that's to make the other players around him better."
Well, its clear that Bavasi liked Phillips, and now Everett, for their "fire" and ability to motivate other players.
Problem is Phillips was a also a very good player. Everett isn't. I don't know about the rest of you, but I've never played on a team where the leader wasn't a good player. You don't lead by sucking, it kinda hurts your credibility.
Phillips hit .281/.409/.468 in '94, and .313/.443/.398 in '93. He could also play 2B, 3B, and CF.
The only redeeming factor about Carl Everett is that he hit 20 homeruns, albeit in a park that aids HRs 30%. He has no other tool, offensively, or defensively.
I think the M's would be better off pulling Phillips out of retirement.
Not only was Phillips a much better player, coming off of the two best years of his career in Detroit, the Angels signed him to a one-year deal. I wouldn't be that upset if the M's had signed Everett on a one-year flyer.
Also, as Taro said, your leader needs to produce if he's going to get in others' faces. Aurilia/Spiezio (another guy signed to bring grit and chemistry) had no standing to criticize others. And then there's Bret Boone, who for all intents and purposes, WAS the 2005 M's Phillips/Everett. Only he couldn't play anymore, and his intensity - heck, even his joking - made the others mad instead of getting them fired up.
Hey amigos, how goes it...
Don't have access to a hit chart at the moment, so can't address that... and once again, Everett is not my choice for the booming LH bat ...
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But if you amigos are making Everett out to be useless with the bat, you're going way too far. :-)
Everett had 23, not 20, homers last year and 87 RBI -- that coming in 135 games. If you don't want to assume a Safeco bonus, then simply remember to PRO-RATE his production and you are at 27 HR, 100 RBI.
I'm not saying that Everett is the big offensive upgrade -- he isn't -- but he will knock in 80-90 runs and they'll be loud runs.
Cheers,
Dr D
Dr. D,
I guess what a lot of us are saying is why on earth would we pro-rate his stats upward (for more games played) in his age 35-36 seasons?
This is an age where a number of players collapse, and collapse hard. Dave Henderson, Ben Ogilvie, Bobby Higginson - there's often no gradual, easy slide into replacement level status.
I hope you're right, but we've got to at least take his age into account and the rarity of improving/flatlining power numbers for mid 30s sluggers. Andres Galaraga, sure...but for every one of those, there are an awful lot of Kirk Gibsons and Bret Boones.
Like you, I'm hoping he does indeed go for 25/95 next year, but I fear we may have signed Ken Caminiti, ca. 1999. We'll see.
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