2006 Offense: +70 Runs?

. Here are the 2006 projections from the Bill James Handbook. Jason Churchill did us a fave and typed them all in for us. Note that these projections are NOT done by James himself, as is stated in the book, but the projections are fun because they're done by a third party. Nobody is going to accuse these projections as being homer-age. ;-) As we'll explain in a second, if the 2006 M's were to hit the targets projected by the James Handbook, the club would have a very good offense: Ichiro Suzuki - .326/.374/.431, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 45 BB, 63 K -- .806 OPS Jeremy Reed - .294/.363/.412, 5 HR, 50 RBI, 48 BB, 58 K -- .775 OPS Adrian Beltre - .274/.331/.479, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 41 BB, 90 K -- .810 OPS Richie Sexson - .260/.357/.521, 37 HR, 112 RBI, 77 BB, 158 K -- .878 OPS Raul Ibanez - .279/.346/.444, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 55 BB, 90 K -- .789 OPS Jose Lopez - (337AB) .264/.295/.418, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 12 BB, 44 K -- .714 OPS Carl Everett - .264/.336/.448, 14 HR, 64 RBI, 28 BB, 67 K -- .785 OPS Yuniesky Betancourt - (209 AB) .273/.309/.397, 3 HR, 21 RBI, -- .706 OPS Chris Snelling - (394 AB) .317/.387/.470, 10 HR, 56 RBI, 45 BB, 66 K -- .857 OPS Not on there, Kenji Johjima or Matt Lawton. Let's plug them in at 770 and 750, respectively ... Lawton's production coming in about 300 AB's against righthanders. Let's toss out the Snelling projection and let's assume that the bench, aside from Lawton, combines for a 675 OPS. . We'll Take It!, Dept. If accurate, this would leave the 2006 M's at an OPS of around 770, compared to their 2005 OPS of 708, and compared to the 2005 Yankees' OPS of 805 and the 2005 Red Sox' OPS of 811. Per the OPS rule of thumb in the post below, this means a gain of +70 runs, offensively, over 2005. Since the 770 OPS is already adjusted for Safeco, the Mariners would have one of the AL's best offenses ... IF what? If their hitters performed approximately as they do in the projections above, the Mariners will have a very good offense. It gives a good idea of what the target performances are. Is that realistic? ...you're asking Adrian Beltre to bounce halfway back, and for one of the young talents (JLo, JuBet, Reed) to have a nice year. Which, as we all know, is in fact what the M's need in order to score 770 runs in Safeco. A rebound by Beltre, and a good year by any one of the kids, and the offense will be effective. Cheers, Dr D